Talking Turkey: Is Emmanuel Macron the saviour that Europe is seeking?
Whatever be the result of the French election — the centrist candidate, Emmanuel Macron, is expected to win — the face-off between him and the far-right Marine Le Pen in the second and final round is a telling comment on the currents hurling around Europe.
The truth is that Europe is in turmoil as never before. The economic downturn, now slightly on the way up, has sapped enthusiasm for the European Union — a truly great undertaking to bury wars and enmities — has lost its sheen. As the extreme right fans the flames of nationalism in country after country, those left out of the prosperity bulge are inclined to support jingoist causes.
For European liberals Donald Trump’s election to the US presidency was a big danger signal. It occurred even as ultra-nationalist parties in Europe were exploiting the refugee influx from the Middle East and Africa, with Germany alone taking in more than a million refugees in a year, and disillusionment with the bureaucracy in Brussels growing everywhere Then came the bombshell of Britain’s decision to leave the EU.
Europeans looked nervously over their shoulder at a string of elections coming up. First, there was the election to the Austrian presidency in which a far-right candidate was seeking the post. He was narrowly defeated.
The election in the Netherlands followed; there again the far-right candidate and his party took second place. After the French election, many eyes are fixed on the German election in a few months. Mercifully, Chancellor Angela Merkel is pitted against a Social Democrat, Martin Schulz.
The French presidential election was so important because, together with Germany, the dominant European economy, France is the only fellow leader and driving force of the EU after Britain’s exit. And France is both singular in its problems and reflects the European malaise.
Ms Le Pen’s National Front (FN) was founded by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, who also once reached the second round against Jacques Chirac but lost badly. Since her accession to the party leadership, after formally ousting her father, Ms Le Pen has been seeking to broaden the party’s appeal to a wider constituency. The FN’s roots in the neo-Nazi past, however, keep cropping up, most recently by her having to replace her successor because of his alleged Nazi sympathies. Mr Le Pen had famously called the Holocaust a “detail of history”. Remarkably, it is the first time in modern French history that the two mainstream parties, the Socialists and the main centre- right Republican Party, have been eliminated in the first round. While Ms Le Pen has long been seeking broader acceptance, Mr Macron is a phenomenon. He was a banker and served briefly in President François Hollande’s Cabinet as economy minister. And then he went ahead to form his own party, calling it En Marche! (Forward).
Mr Macron has a brilliant mind and is a good speaker. In personal life, he threw conventions to the wind by marrying his school teacher 24 years his senior in age. The crisis point for the presidential aspirant will come after his likely victory because parliamentary elections are due in a few months and his party is not expected to win a majority, probably forcing him to rely on the centre-right.
The Republican candidate, Francois Fillon, was expected to win the first and second rounds before he got engulfed in a financial scandal by allegedly paying his wife and children money from State coffers when he was Prime Minister. He asked his supporters to vote for Mr Macron in the final round.
It is typical of the intricacies of French politics that unlike all parties backing Mr Chirac against Ms Le Pen’s father, all the Opposition parties did not publicly support Mr Macron; some, including the far left, refused to endorse him. French politics has been ruled by ennui for a time as problems have been mounting.
First, there is the problem of blacks, mainly from Africa (thanks to the French colonial legacy), many of whom are native-born living in ghettos in the suburbs. They are not truly assimilated and feel angry and dispossessed. A tiny minority tends to join the Islamic State as a form of protest or indulge in terrorism in their home country.
France itself has changed. During my two-year sojourn in Paris in the 1980s, mastery over French language and literature entitled one to be considered truly French, whatever the colour of one’s skin. But colour consciousness has seeped into the social mores and civilities in France like in most European countries and in the US.
Mr Macron’s tasks, if he wins, are formidable. He has hinted at introducing much-needed reforms, easier said than done. For one thing, the country’s rules for work and play are seemingly set in stone as are the very generous health provisions for all its citizens. How will he tackle these problems without the support of a major chunk of the centre-right and what price will the latter demand?
Yet the French are a highly talented people with a great civilisation and achievements in their chequered history, whether in revolution or peacetime.
In some respects, their achievements in the art of living in modern times have reached a high point unparalleled by any other nation. The problem, of course, is whether they will sacrifice their way of life for utilitarian ends.
For the EU, Mr Macron’s likely win will be a lifesaver. Ms Merkel or Mr Shultz would feel very lonely at the top with Britain out and France now the only other major country to lead the EU. Besides, Germany has its inhibitions in exercising power, given its unsavoury past.
Mr Macron’s likely victory will indeed boost the EU’s fortunes. He is unabashedly pro-EU, pro-globalisation and determined to try to undo French traditions that prevent it from reaching its full potential.
