It is an undeniable fact that the electoral wind is blowing in favour of the Indian National Congress. The credit, undoubtedly, goes to the Gandhi siblings for their relentless dedication and efforts over the past several weeks. However, forming a government will not be as easy as garnering a simple majority.
Although the Congress enjoys a larger vote share (38 per cent compared to the BJP’s 36 per cent in 2018), its vote bank is thinly distributed across the state, while that of the BJP’s is densely concentrated in certain pockets. Consequently, the BJP’s vote share converts into more seats (at 104 compared to Congress’ 80 in 2018). The trend is set to repeat in this round of election too, even as the vote share and number of seats will significantly increase for the Congress, which will prove inadequate in safeguarding itself from the sly horse-trading tactics that the Modi-Shah’s BJP will employ.
The result day will likely throw one of the two scenarios — the common limiting factor for the Congress’ success in both is Siddaramaiah, rather his unhealthy competition with D K Shivakumar and unjustified animosity towards Devegowda and his family.
Scenario 1: Congress tactfully protects its herd to form a government
One may safely assume that the expiry date of the Siddaramaiah-Shivakumar camaraderie is May 13, 2023. Since his induction into the Congress, Siddaramaiah enjoyed a free hand, a courtesy denied to most seasoned Congressmen. He often sidelined or overstepped long-serving leaders including D.K. Shivakumar, particularly when it came to seat distribution and selection of candidates during elections. It should surprise none if a high-voltage drama ensues between the Siddaramiah and DKS camps in the battle for the Chief Ministership. The BJP will lose no sweat in encashing on the infighting, which automatically leads to the scenario 2.
Scenario 2: BJP’s efficient horse-trading leaves the Congress short of the magic number
The JD(S) will once again have to play the kingmaker, but the cards will be off the table if Siddaramaiah is proposed as the chief ministerial candidate. Siddaramiah’s childish grudge against Deve Gowda’s family, which he showed through his petty indulgences such as keeping the designated CM’s bungalow to himself in a show of power although H.D. Kumaraswamy was the serving chief minister in 2018, has deepened the rivalry.
The JD(S)’s support to form a united opposition against the BJP on the national stage is a testament to the fact that the Congress was its preferred coalition partner. It would be unwise of the Congress to one man’s personal vengeance jeopardise the party’s future. One ought to remember that pre-poll surveys with a sample size of 2,000-odd people does not guarantee the eligibility to occupy the top-post in the state. Siddaramaiah hardly enjoys any support outside of his community, as evidenced by his unimpressive election record in the recent years.
When he left the JD(S) in 2006, about eight MLAs accompanied him; a much smaller number will leave with him should he choose to quit the Congress. Now, it may seem like D.K. Shivakumar will be the natural choice for the chief minister, but that is not the case. Even if by some stroke of luck, the JD(S) miraculously agrees to the proposition, Siddaramiah will rebel against this decision, leading the Congress back to scenario 1.
Why is winning Karnataka so important?
For the BJP, losing Karnataka, the 4th richest Indian state and the only one with the distinction of having consistently served as an ATM to fuel national political ambitions to any party holding its reign, will be a huge blow. Moreover, its dreams of making in-roads into the resilient south will crumble. For the Congress, it can determine the course of its fate in the national politics and the electoral wins in 2024. Most importantly, for the sanctity of the Indian democracy, the Congress’ victory in Karnataka will put an end to the BJP’s abominable politics and reinstate the confidence that even an embarrassing abundance of money and muscle power cannot withstand the might of the people’s will.
The solution, therefore, lies in choosing a neutral chief minister candidate with a proven political track record. The obvious first choice is Mallikarjun Kharge, followed by Dr G. Parameshwara. Kharge should have been given the Chief Ministership decades ago, perhaps now is a good time as any. He can be depended upon to deliver good and (more importantly) stable governance to the people of Karnataka and sweeping wins for the Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha election across the state. However, bearing in mind that Kharge is an indispensable asset in national politics, he must be brought back to Delhi to play a greater role should the Congress be at the helm of affairs in 2024, while Dr G Parameshwar can carry forward leadership at the state-level.
(B.S. Raghavan is a politician from Karnataka. He has served with former chief ministers of Karnataka, including Devraj Urs and Ramakrishna Hedge)
