As the NDA government nears completion of two years in office, it should be clear that the big changes which one hoped for from the BJP-led government have not materialised. On the domestic front, while India has displaced China as the fastest growing global economy with 7.3 per cent gross domestic product, the reality is that the government has not been able to create adequate jobs, with only about two million of the 10 million eligible youth getting jobs annually.
Recovering over $500 billion black money stashed abroad is proving as difficult as recovering many bank loans given to businessmen by the UPA government, with over Rs 3,00,000 crore listed as non-performing assets. The numerous foreign trips of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, though well intentioned, have failed to get the $1 trillion foreign direct investment needed to build creaking infrastructure, kick-start the economy and create jobs.
The only major offer has come from Japan, of $12 billion to introduce a bullet train between Mumbai and Ahmedabad. Despite its economic slowdown, China still has over $2 trillion to invest in foreign countries. Like many other nations, it is waiting for the NDA government to introduce reforms that will attract it to India. India has re-ceived about $40 billion this year, but needs 25 times that amount to create jobs and to ensure the economy grows at 10 per cent.
On the national security front, India’s latest defence budget of Rs 2.58 lakh crore in 2016-17 is a marginal hike of 9.7 per cent over last year’s revised estimates of Rs 2.33 lakh crore. The defence budget does not include pensions that would take up the budget to nearly Rs 3.41 lakh crore. The defence ministry failed to spend Rs 11,595 crore of its capital budget earmarked for buying new weapons and systems last year, plus over Rs 6,700 crore of the defence expenditure budget remained unspent.
At about 1.72 per cent of the GDP, this is our lowest budget in GDP terms since the disastrous 1962 Sino-India war. China has announced a defence budget four times that of India’s. It is, in fact, equal to the combined defence budgets of India, Japan, South Korea and Australia. It does not include pensions, research and development, etc.
Clearly, the Indian military already in dire need of fighter aircraft, submarines, artillery, helicopters, drones, etc., is not in a healthy state given its manpower shortage and aged equipment. The recommendations of the Seventh Pay Commission are a let down as it has further lowered the defence services’ pay and allowances as compared to the civilian, police and paramilitary services.
On the international front, the US is increasingly trying to “persuade” India to form the informal “quad-rilateral” — with the US, Japan and Australia — to oppose China’s territorial claims in the South and East China Seas. However, it does not wish to provide any subsidised warships, aircraft and submarines to bolster the blue water capability of the Indian Navy, while “gifting” capability to the Pakistan military to counterbalance India.
At the same time, the US (which is keen to sell F-16 or F-18 fighter jets to India under “Make in India”) has announced plans to provide eight subsidised F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan for $800 million (Pakistan will pay only about $200 million). Pakistan is receiving subsidised JF-17 jet fighters and Qing-class submarines from China.
India is now also confronted with an unstable and confusing triangle of China, Pakistan and the US. Hence, it will need to look at its overall Asia-Indo-Pacific maritime strategy, keeping in mind our latest truncated and highly inadequate defence budget.
India needs to be more pro-active in the Indian Ocean region and play its role of “net security provider” to littorals by its own presence and timely assistance when needed and also providing some capability and training. We have already given patrol vessels, helicopters, shore radar stations, etc., to some island nations in the Indian Ocean region and provided naval and coast guard training free of cost to many others in Asia and Africa.
Clearly the time has come for Prime Minister Modi to take crucial decisions to attract FDI, improve our economic growth, create jobs and enhance our security posture. Their is no magic wand, and time is short. Will Modi be the man of India’s destiny? Or will we wait for another messiah?
