Anand K. Sahay | Early signals of a churning, in India’s politics and civil society
The public arena is pulsating as the year closes; it is pregnant with possibilities in politics that didn’t exist even six months ago. Signs of a pushback to the government — and ruling party thought — have come from unexpected quarters, not only from the political arena. These speak of a churning that affects — and influences — all of the country.
Will this crystallize into a force that can lead to significant outcomes? The picture will become much clearer in the coming year with the result of the Assembly polls in a clutch of states — starting with Karnataka in April — that will form the prelude to the Lok Sabha election of 2024. The new present situation or conjuncture has been shaped in considerable measure by Congress icon Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra which gives voice to the many contradictions created by the Narendra Modi-led establishment.
In the regions where state elections will be fought, the real contest will be between the BJP and the Congress. That is the point of real interest. Besides stoking majority community sentiments, the ruling party’s principal tactic is likely to be to splinter the non-BJP vote by offering incentives to some in the Opposition ranks to enter the fray to cut into the Congress vote.
In Goa earlier this year, the Trinamul Congress and the AAP contested the Assembly election to no apparent purpose. Their presence decisively influenced the result in the BJP’s favour. In Gujarat, the MIM and AAP disturbed the structure of the competition in up to 60 Assembly seats. These parties had no evident strategic interests in Gujarat. Whatever the rhetoric, in the main, regional parties do not view the saffron party as an ideological antagonist, as the Congress does, even as they fight it in their own backyard.
This is the fundamental reality that the Congress faces as the principal challenger to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in addition to mounting an ideological challenge to communal thought pushed by the Modi cohorts. With some regional parties, absolute cooperation can be on the cards, with others hardly any. How creatively politics is shaped to suit such a situation is worth watching.
Like Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh had a BJP government (until the recent election dislodged it). Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned vigorously, as he customarily does. But the Congress won convincingly in spite of factional squabbles within. Mr Modi’s much-vaunted popularity amongst Hindus failed to show results. This has been seen in earlier state polls too.
Communal-baiting of the Opposition, and dog whistles, make up the ruling party’s repertoire of tactics in Parliament elections. On display on the other side was the crippling weakness of the Congress, the dynasty tag that attached to it, and the listlessness of a depleted party organisation.
The present year — from start to finish — has been remarkable for the fresh elements inserted into the Congress, though much organisational work remains.
Indeed, the year 2022 can be said to have been the year of the Congress. After a quarter century the party’s chief is not a Gandhi. A Congress stalwart from Karnataka, Mallikarjun Kharge, is now the elected president — and he happens to be from the dalit community. This is major surgery. Now the BJP’s favourite dynasty barb does not cut ice. Under Mr Kharge’s leadership, the Congress has already produced a sterling electoral win in Himachal Pradesh.
And in the Bharat Jodo Yatra, Rahul Gandhi has helmed a multi-dimensional nation-gripping campaign that is of the Congress but goes well beyond that party. The tumultuous reception given to the yatra at the Red Fort in Delhi last Saturday is witness. Mr Gandhi’s words hit a chord in every Indian heart. The Congress leader is asking for no less than a return to the values of a true Indian identity and democracy which are observed only as a formality in the Modi era.
In the current year, questioning voices have come from unexpected non-political quarters. This is the first time in Mr Modi’s eight years as PM that the Supreme Court recently had occasion to tick off the government for the unbecoming style and language used against it in top circles — an undoubted reference to the swagger of the Union law minister, and regrettably also the vice-president of India, in seeking to lay down new terms of engagement between it and the government.
It is noteworthy that a court that had lately acquired the reputation of looking the other way when citizens are up against State power, found that the only recourse it had was to push back against the government through open public articulation.
A cultural icon, movie star Amitabh Bachchan, an institution in his own right, has also caused ripples by his pointed remarks. His speech at the Kolkata Film Festival earlier this month, catching people unawares, spoke truth to power. This was scarcely believable of a stalwart who has led the way in supporting the Prime Minister.
Referencing the excesses of the colonial period, the famous actor spoke of questions being raised even now on issues concerning “civil liberties” and “freedom of expression”. He addressed the question of “human rights”, and of “disrespectful portrayal of Muslims”. Mr Bachchan, who hardly ever speaks, noted that “current historicals (films) are couched in fictionalised jingoism and moral policing”.
A new political mood does indeed appear to be developing, and this is expanding the public sphere and the sphere of probabilities. Whatever else it may be, the Bharat Jodo Yatra is not “a journey without maps”. It has crept up on the existing grammar of politics.
