Xi particularly mentioned his country’s breakthroughs in areas such as aerospace, deep-sea exploration and new energy vehicles
In his New Year message, President Xi Jinping had highlighted China’s achievements during the past year and spoke of his vision for the future. He particularly mentioned his country’s breakthroughs in areas such as aerospace, deep-sea exploration and new energy vehicles.
More worrying was when he touched upon the National Reunification, he asserted that Taiwan should soon be reunified with the mainland, a move which would definitely increase tensions in the Taiwan Strait -- and across Asia.
At the same time, Mr Xi also noted the importance of international cooperation, at a time when his propaganda machinery circulated the news of the impending construction of a dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo. This seems to be the opposite of the cooperation announced by the Chinese President.
A few days before the New Year, news circulated that Beijing had approved the construction of the world’s largest hydropower project, “stoking concerns about the displacement of communities in Tibet and environmental impacts downstream in India and Bangladesh”, observed the BBC, which commented further: “The dam, which will be located in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo river, could generate three times more energy than the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest hydropower plant.”
Although the news item was rather vague, Beijing has managed to spread fear in the neighbourhood. Incidentally, the concept of a “dam” was abandoned years ago, and it was replaced by a series of nine run-of-river hydropower plants (HPPs), with minimum reservoirs.
It should also be pointed out that the area where the HPPs are planned between the town of Pai in Nyingchi City and Drepung (Beibeng), near the Indian border (Upper Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh), is a more than sparsely inhabited area.
This exaggerated story could have been a timely “plant” by Beijing to scare India at a time when Mr Xi is seen by many in China as having compromised too quickly in Ladakh (with the Depsang and Demchok “disengagement” agreement). Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning was quick to deny that the mega structures could have any effect on India: “China has always adhered to a responsible attitude toward the development of cross-border rivers,” she said. Though it is true that the development of hydropower “has undergone several decades of in-depth research,” as Mao put it, one can seriously doubt that the new development, if it happens, will have no implications for the areas downstream.
The timing of the announcement is also suspicious. Like his new aggressiveness on the Taiwan front, this should be seen in the context of the weakening of Xi Jinping’s position vis-à-vis the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), as well as the economic slowdown which makes the Chinese leadership (read Xi Jinping) extremely nervous.
On December 27, Caixin, the Chinese economic publication, published an impressive chart “The Military Brass Ensnared in China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign.” The article observed: “More than 80 generals have been ensnared in China’s anti-corruption campaign since it kicked off in the wake of the 18th National Party Congress held in October 2012.”
According to the Caixin compilation, “13 full generals, 18 lieutenant-generals, and more than 50 major generals have fallen from grace in graft probes in the past dozen years.”
In October 2023, Li Shangfu was sacked from his position as defence minister and Wei Fenghe, Li’s predecessor, was stripped of his rank as general in June 2024, after he had served as defence minister from 2018 to 2023. Xi Jinping sacked Li Shangfu with no explanation, after he had disappeared for nearly two months; promoted in March 2023 and sacked in October, Li became the country’s shortest serving defence minister.
Were the generals really “corrupt” or did they only displease the emperor?
The HPP project on the Yarlung Tsangpo is an old project and different avatars have been rejected by Beijing over the years; it remains that the location of the HPPs, not far from the Indian border is particularly worrying.
In March 2021 already, a notice issued by the Chinese government announced that the entire Metok (in the Great Bend region) now comes under “border management” and that the area thereafter became restricted: “People entering and leaving must comply with the relevant regulations of the border management area and need to show relevant documents at the border checkpoints.”
Even the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was not exempted from these new restrictions: “officers and soldiers of the PLA and the People’s Armed Police (PAP) who are not stationed in the area must present a certificate issued by the competent department”.
The Five-Year Plan covering the period 2020-2025 had set up “long range objectives through the year 2035”. In 2021, it was submitted to the National People’s Congress (NPC) for approval; it included “the building of hydropower bases on the lower reaches of the river as among the priority energy projects to be undertaken in the next five years”.
Some groundwork needed to be made. First, the Pai-Metok (Pai-Mo) Highway linking Nyingchi to Metok, north of Upper Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh, which was opened in July 2021.
After the completion of the highway, the length of the road from Nyingchi City to Metok County was shortened from 346 km to 180 km and the driving time was shortened from 11 hours to four and a half hours. Though only 67 km long, in strategic terms the highway will be a game-changer and greatly accelerate the developments of new model villages, and thus the relocation of populations on the border. But, more importantly, it could pave the way to the nine or 10 HPPs, because contrary to what one reads in the media today, there is no question of one mega dam; already in December 2020, the Global Times announced Beijing’s plans to build a cascade of nine large HPPs on the Yarlung Tsangpo, which would produce thrice the amount of electricity generated by the Three Gorges Dam.
If this happens, it will have incalculable strategic implications; the HPPs, being located just north of the McMahon Line, would indeed threaten India’s entire Northeast region -- as well as Bangladesh.
For India, what needs to be done now is to stop copying and pasting the Chinese press releases and instead conduct an in-depth study of the project with all material available on Chinese websites. We can only hope that India’s foreign secretary Vikram Misri had a serious discussion with the Chinese leaders during his recent visit to Beijing and got some assurances in this regard.
Claude Arpi is Distinguished Fellow at the Centre of Excellence for Himalayan Studies, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence (Delhi), and writes on India, China, Tibet and Indo-French relations
