The results in key states speak for themselves: In UP, the Congress got only six seats; in Bihar, three; in Gujarat, one; in West Bengal, one; and in Madhya Pradesh and Andhra, none
The Congress Party must die to be reborn again, and the next AICC session in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, over April 8-9, presents an opportunity to achieve that. The party needs to be reborn because the idea of India that it represents is still relevant. It needs to die, because, as it exists today, it is unable to electorally uphold or protect that idea.
The ideology of the Congress, as conceived by its founding fathers, was broadly in support of democracy, human rights, individual liberty, and respect for all faiths. These ideals were often breached when the party was in power — the Emergency being the most glaring example — but its broad worldview still held. However, since 1984, when it got 48.1 per cent of the vote, the Congress has never won power on its own. The governments it has helmed after that have all been coalitions, showing a linear decline. Since 2014, that decline has become precipitous and vote percentages have dismally averaged just about 20 per cent. The fact that the party got 99 seats in 2024 was interpreted by some in the party as a great ‘victory’, but although this was an improvement over the abysmal 52 seats of the 2019 election, it was far from being a reason for celebration. The results in key states speak for themselves: In UP, the Congress got only six seats; in Bihar, three; in Gujarat, one; in West Bengal, one; and in Madhya Pradesh and Andhra, none. The truth is that the catchment area of the seats was too narrow; in large parts of the country which were earlier Congress strongholds, the party performed as poorly; in other areas it won seats on the coattails of regional parties; and some of the increase was because the BJP’s performance was below par, with no correlation to the Congress’ fightback. Just as a matter of perspective, it should be remembered that earlier, even in its worst defeat under Indira Gandhi post-Emergency in 1977, the Congress still managed to get 34.5 per cent of the vote and 154 seats.
What is worse is that there are no signs of revival. By now, only a total revamp and reinvention of the party from the grassroots upwards, is the answer. Tinkering with what exists, through a chintan shivir, or other superficial changes, will serve little purpose. When a body is on a ventilator, band-aids don’t help. Or to use a different analogy, argumentation on how to rebuild the future matter little if they are taking place on the Titanic.
The real problem is that the Congress has become organisationally defunct. Its grassroot structure and cadre strength has collapsed. Hence, the shell exists, but without a foundation. Parties in such a situation can only function at the level of rhetoric or bravado. The reason why the BJP could rise from the ashes of just two seats in Parliament in 1984 to a majority in 2014, and two successive terms in power after that, is because even when almost wiped out, it focused on its grassroots organisation, cadre (including that of the RSS), and ideology. The Congress has long neglected the first two, and is floundering on the third.
The decline of the Congress has three major consequences. Firstly, the absence of another party apart from the BJP with an effective national footprint, distorts the functioning of a parliamentary democracy. We have strong Opposition parties in specific citadels, but the absence of a cohesive national Opposition is a glaring void. Secondly, given its continuous erosion, the Congress cannot play the role of an anchor for the larger Opposition. The BJP plays that role in the NDA. By contrast, the Congress, is seen by constituents of the INDIA alliance more as a liability than a cementing factor. This only fuels the internal contradictions of the Opposition, and accentuates the asymmetric democratic imbalance. Thirdly, the more the Congress declines, especially in its real catchment area of north India, the greater is the stasis and stagnation within the party. Party workers are further demoralised and demotivated, and desertions of leaders increases. No wonder that in Gujarat last week, Rahul Gandhi accused his own leaders of conniving with the BJP.
The Gandhi family troika may be well-intentioned, but they have consistently failed to rectify matters. Surrounded by a coterie that deliberately distances talented leaders, they remain cocooned in an island of false complacency, hoping that one day the BJP will falter and yield power to them. This is suicidal thinking, because the BJP shows no signs of receding, and the Congress, if it continues as it is, may just have withered away by then. Moreover, the party’s internal dynamics asphyxiates scope for fixing accountability. It seems that Congress leaders have mastered the art of passing the buck to every conceivable corner except where it should stop. Even if sometimes reports are commissioned to study what went wrong, they appear to be a cosmetic exercise, and only gather dust. The entire exercise appears to be a conspiracy of the complicit. In party forums, mostly packed by loyalists, no real analysis that can bring about concrete and productive change, takes place. It is an inert ecosystem, where nobody dares to question and nobody cares to answer.
Physics tells us that if an object loses critical mass, it becomes fatally unstable, and collapses. But in the process, energy is released. That energy, pole vaulting half-hearted reform initiatives like the abortive G-23, should fearlessly inspire leaders and workers truly loyal to the Congress idea, to rebel and dismantle the old to bring in the new. Instead of predictable chintans, what is required at the forthcoming AICC session is rigorous interrogation and foundational change. At present the party is in the throes of a strange penumbra: It is not yet dead, but is far from being alive. The time to act to qualitatively change this situation, and begin the process of creating a new Congress, cannot be any further delayed. A beginning can be made at the next AICC session. Will the usual sycophancy prevail in Ahmedabad, or greater courage be on display?
