Sunil Gatade | Double trouble for BJP as Assembly polls lie ahead

Instead of playing on the front foot, Mr Modi has become almost inactive in campaigning, unlike the star campaigner who believed that the world revolved around him, projecting that he was the lone leader who could lead to the light.

Despite being an expert in electioneering, the BJP and Mr Modi are in the dark about how to go about the polls, given the scale of rebellion seen so far in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. The likes of Ghulam Nabi Azad, who were taken away from the Congress, are proving to be dead ducks. With no worthwhile support, Mr Azad, who had led the G-23 rebellion against Rahul Gandhi, has almost folded his shop. Worse for Mr Azad is that there's no one to cry over the fate of the “Ghulam”.

It is unlikely to be a different story in Maharashtra too, where Mr Modi and home minister Amit Shah’s politics have created much turmoil in the middle-roader state. It is not that they aren’t burning the midnight oil. But it is they who have created such a mess in the state, especially in the past five years, that they have lost the way.

The delay in announcing the poll schedule for the premier state itself smacks of the BJP’s lack of confidence. A political observer remarked tongue-in-cheek that “it is just a delay in the fait accompli”. Unless a miracle happens in Maharashtra, the BJP and its allies are not on a strong wicket in the state. Pre-poll surveys speak of anti-incumbency affecting the BJP most. The Ladki Bahin Yojana has certainly made the ruling Mahayuti a talking point. But one swallow does not a summer make.
Even the diehard supporters of the BJP in Haryana feel that the 10-year anti-incumbency and an aggressive Congress campaign is making matters more difficult day by day. The likes of the controversial Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, against whom a gag order has now been issued, has turned the situation muddier.

Vinesh Phogat, who won the hearts of 140 crore Indians at the Olympic Games despite being denied the medal, has become a brand ambassador for the Congress in Haryana. Sadly, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, the alleged perpetrator of the atrocities on the Olympian women wrestlers, looks like the champion for the BJP, which does not need enemies.

The BJP lost Haryana six months back, on the day it abruptly replaced Manohar Lal Khattar as chief minister with Nayab Singh Saini. It was replacing one ordinary leader with another. Nothing to write home about. The replacement was virtually an announcement from the rooftops that there is something rotten in the land of Kurukshetra.

Much publicised ED raids on those allegedly close to Bhupinder Singh Hooda have not dented his prospects of being the frontrunner in the CM game if the Congress returns to power. Reports had it that the ED seized assets worth Rs 834 crores under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) in a case involving Mr Hooda and a developer. The Congress leader has claimed that he has nothing to do with this case.

The tragedy for the BJP is that it doesn’t need any outsider to capsize its boat. Mr Modi and Mr Shah have taken in umpteen leaders from the Congress in their audacious move for a “Congress-mukt Bharat” and ensured a “Congress-yukt” BJP. The saffron party has changed beyond recognition and those who have come from the outside are now ruling the roost, or so goes the complaint from BJP veterans.

Loyalists in the BJP, whether in Haryana or Jammu and Kashmir, do not believe that the panacea for the world’s largest party is to hand it over to former Congressmen. The voices of dissidence are growing, loosening the strong grip of Mr Modi over the organisation.

The fact is that the central control by the Modi-Shah duo is killing all initiative at the local level and creating a crisis at the central level with the BJP down to 240 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. This is throwing the organisation into a whirlpool. The RSS’ Mohan Bhagwat was brought out from virtual retirement due to the BJP’s poor show.

The absence of a full-time party president is an added concern along with the tussle for the top post. Who will become the next president of the BJP will indicate whether the RSS is enjoying its newfound power or the party is still embedded in Mr Modi. At the moment, Mr Bhagwat is making some statements off and on, but looks like he is afraid to strike. Unless Mr Modi is told that he needs to mend his ways in the changed scenario and is forced to act likewise, the deceleration is not going to stop.

However, one redeeming factor appears to be Jharkhand. With the defection of former chief minister Champai Soren, the BJP is positioning itself as a formidable challenger to the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance that currently governs the state. The party already has an alliance with the AJSU in place.

The BJP is experiencing turbulence across key states, struggling with internal discontent and as well as a strong Opposition. The party's future success will hinge on its ability to address these issues, recalibrate its strategies, and restore confidence among its base and allies.

Mr Modi’s cup of woes is full to the brim. No amount of targeting Rahul Gandhi, including his speeches in the United States, looks like making any dent at the ground level. The Leader of the Opposition is seeking to tell the world that the “Vishwa Guru” has feet made of clay.

What Mr Modi fears the most is that if the BJP performs poorly in the coming Assembly polls, dissidence will snowball in key party-ruled states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where he had installed his “yes men”, who are no real leaders and have delivered little.

The double trouble the BJP is facing is because of the vast influx into the party to make it the world’s largest and appointing worthless cronies at crucial places. Troubled Manipur shows day in and day out the benefits or otherwise of the BJP’s much-touted “double engine” governance model. There cannot be a worse advertisement than this.