Sunil Gatade | Polls in Delhi like a clash of 2 chess grandmasters
Mr Modi and the “Muffler Man”, as AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal is known around the country, are both fast on the uptake, have strong likes and dislikes, and are hugely ambitious to the core
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The Delhi Assembly polls scheduled to be held on February 5 are poised to be a chess match between two grandmasters, fiercely out to checkmate each other.
It is an irony. But for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has been lording it over the Centre from New Delhi since May 2014, the city-state of Delhi has remained a distant dream so far.
Mr Modi and the “Muffler Man”, as AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal is known around the country, are both fast on the uptake, have strong likes and dislikes, and are hugely ambitious to the core. Mr Kejriwal had unsuccessfully contested against Mr Modi in May 2014 from Varanasi when he was the PM candidate of the BJP. A section of the political class even dubs Mr Kejriwal as the “Chhota Modi”.
But Delhi has proved to be the toughest nut to crack for Mr Modi among the states and regions that were once controlled by the BJP. For years, Delhi was the fiefdom of the BJP and of its erstwhile avatar, the Jan Sangh, whose fortunes blossomed on the backing of the refugees from the 1947 Partition.
Delhi might be peanuts for the world’s largest party controlling New Delhi, but the yearning is growing by the day for the ultimate leader. The more he tries, the more he misses. The results day, February 8, will decide which way the cookie will crumble.
Suddenly, Delhi has become a puzzle for the BJP, which has been winning all seven Lok Sabha seats there since May 2014 and did so even in the 2024 polls, which saw the AAP and Congress forging an alliance.
There are contradictions galore. The BJP has been out of power in Delhi for 26 long years. Its last CM was the late Sushma Swaraj, who was brought in at the last minute by the Vajpayee-Advani duo, replacing Sahib Singh Verma. Incidentally, his son Parvesh is this time taking on Arvind Kejriwal, who has become the tormentor of the party in the national capital.
The emergence of Mr Kejriwal on the Delhi scene in the wake of Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption agitation some 12 years ago has totally changed the grammar of politics in the national capital. The AAP has been able to oust the BJP from power in the MCD, entrenched there for 15 years, despite the BJP putting up a credible fight.
The BJP’s belief this time is that Mr Kejriwal is facing double anti-incumbency of 10 years in power in Delhi as well as some two years in the MCD, and therefore it is time to go for the kill.
Though the AAP’s Atishi is CM at present, the party is fighting the polls to make Mr Kejriwal the CM.
Despite being a tiny little territory, which is not a full-fledged state, Delhi has always punched above its weight because of being central to the politics of India. It is important because it is a mini-India, where people from Kashmir to Kanyakumari have settled over the years. So, the pulse of the people of the country is known from Delhi, goes one argument. “Ab Delhi door nahi” reflects the aura and the power of the national capital.
This time, the tussle has become even more interesting as the Congress is seeking to become relevant once again in the NCT. The emergence of Mr Kejriwal had not only made topsy-turvy the political scene in Delhi but also ensured the near annihilation of the Congress from its citadel.
How much Rahul Gandhi scores on Delhi’s turf after his party’s debacle in Haryana and Maharashtra is being keenly watched. A section believes that the Congress turning pro-active could help Mr Kejriwal beat anti-incumbency as anti-AAP votes could be divided between the BJP and the Congress.
Another feels if the Congress succeeds in becoming a serious third player, the battle could become more than exciting. This section claims the AAP is suffering serious anti-incumbency issues and that the people are yearning for the Sheila Dikshit era. After being 15 years in power, the Congress has the dubious distinction of scoring a duck in the past 10 years.
The AAP’s problem is that its claim that the Congress is the BJP’s B-team is not carrying conviction with voters as some governance issues have sharply come to the fore.
At the same time, the BJP’s attempts to project Mr Kejriwal as corrupt through the alleged excise scam known as the “sharab ghotala” has failed to have much impact. The “Sheesh Mahal” is another controversy to paint him black.
The presence of parties like Mayawati’s BSP as well as Chirag Paswan’s LJP is seen as helping the BJP to divide the AAP vote. The AAP has so far remained the dominant player in the 70-member Assembly and the BJP a marginal player.
It is said that chess cannot be taught; it has to be learnt. If that is the case, Mr Modi and Mr Kejriwal are undoubtedly grandmasters in the game of political chess. While Mr Modi has for the first time brought the BJP an absolute majority at the Centre in May 2014, the ambitious Mr Kejriwal emerged on the Delhi scene out of nowhere, like the surprise reappearance of Houdini in a magic act.
It is equally true that Rahul Gandhi has to prove that his getting 99 seats in the Lok Sabha polls was not just a flash in the pan. It will be a different cup of tea if Rahul turns out to be an astute player of political chess, thereby turning into a disruptor.
Mr Kejriwal’s rise in Delhi is mainly due to innovative welfare politics he initiated in a big way, turning weaker sections to his side almost overnight. Mr Modi had once contemptuously dismissed this as the politics of' “revris” (freebies).
It is a no-holds-barred battle that has the potential to change politics, with a host of state polls lined up next year after the Bihar Assembly election scheduled for the end of 2025.
Now Mr Kejriwal’s worry is that the PM could utilise the next Union Budget, to be unveiled on February 1, to the advantage of the BJP, by announcing a series of pro-poor measures that could take the battle to the AAP camp in the national capital.
Mr Modi’s landslide victory in Maharashtra on the back of the “Ladki Bahin Yojana” means that the PM could go to any extent for the cause of Delhi and that he is not averse to “revris”. The jury is still out.
The writer is a journalist based in New Delhi