The curtain is up for one of the most exciting episodes of electoral politics in India with the Election Commission announcing the dates for voting to the Gujarat Assembly. The elections will be held in two phases in December, and the results will be out along with those of Himachal Pradesh.
The Assembly elections in seven states to be held next year are considered the semi-finals to the Lok Sabha polls in 2024 but the hottest and most watched contest will be the one that will elect the members of the Gujarat Assembly, and this is due to a variety of reasons. The home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been under BJP rule for the last 22 years, except for a brief interregnum of President’s Rule, the party having won every election in this period. But it has scraped through last time, fighting too many odds, which included the disenchantment of the business class dues to the faulty rollout of the GST regime that put a lot of units out of business. There was resentment among several communities, which the Congress made use of to the hilt.
This time around, the party is in no mood to accept a repeat of the same. Its trump card is the Prime Minister, who continues to have considerable sway over voters. On his part, Mr Modi understands the voter the best as compared with other politicians of his league and has no qualms about using all means at his disposal. He has, in the last one month, made several visits to the state and launched a series of development programmes. The BJP is of the firm belief that Mr Modi’s visit to Morbi and meeting with the survivors of the bridge collapse would have assuaged their feelings. A party with a solid vote base — 49.5 per cent the last time around — is well within its rights to set a higher goal.
The Congress has acted as if the Gujarat elections are a minor affair. The party has suffered major setbacks in the recent past when several leaders who helped it raise the tally the last time deserted it, but it shows no signs of remedying those losses. The party polled 41 per cent votes last time, and hence its leaders exude the confidence that the low-key campaign it runs in the state will keep it in good stead. It is a fact that the party’s vote base is not directly linked to the leadership; it has maintained the vote base irrespective of who has been at the helm.
The game-changer in this election could be the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Reinvigorated with the poll win in Punjab, the party gives the impression that it is in the race not as an also-ran but as a serious contender. There is one school which believes that it could divide the Opposition vote and help the BJP coast to an easy win, while the other thinks the impact it can have on the urban voters could harm the BJP most.
A win is critical for the BJP to keep its act together while a loss will make the 2024 general election a more open affair. Either way, the Gujarat verdict will give indications as to which way the Opposition should go in the Lok Sabha polls if it is seriously thinking of taking on the NDA. Over to the people of Gujarat.
