The optics of India’s foreign minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad may have been the nicest thing to happen against a backdrop of strained ties between India and Pakistan as the warmth in personal meetings outside the formal conference of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), especially those that Mr Jaishankar had with his counterpart Ishaq Dar and their interior minister Mohsin Naqvi, was noticeable.
To interpret the cordiality of the first Indian foreign minister’s visit to Pakistan in nine years as a breakthrough leading to a possible thaw in national ties is to read too much into the civility and the etiquette of diplomacy in the complex dynamics of the region’s geopolitics. Of course, it would be a very good development if there it is to be a shift away from India’s regular abrasiveness in its dealings with Pakistan and China.
In any case, it is far above the foreign minister’s pay grade to order a resetting of ties when any such change of direction can come only from the very top and we know the chances of that happening any time soon are remote. Mr Jaishankar may have kept to the SCO charter of not raking up bilateral issues, which he, however, did attempt in veiled references to “activities across borders characterised by terrorism, extremism and separatism”, meaning Pakistan and China.
There have been rugged signals of late from India with the home minister and others ruling out any top-level bilateral talks with Pakistan while the defence minister has often spoken of Pakistan needing to create the right conditions for such talks to resume. Once again, the message was that the neighbour had to do something about putting a stop to sponsoring cross-border terror, which has always been suspected to come from the Pakistan Army’s playbook.
The play of cricket diplomacy in Islamabad could not, however, be missed as Pakistan’s Mohsin Naqvi is also the chairman of the Pakistan Cricket Board, which is hosting the Champions Trophy, its first big ICC event after having co-hosted the 1996 World Cup with India. Pakistan is extra keen to see India play in Lahore where it has been promised security befitting the visit of a head of state. Team India’s participation — India has not played in Pakistan since 2008 — would be key to the success of the event.
The government has denied that any talk of cricket took place, which is hard to believe in any meeting of India and Pakistan. Considering that as head of the International Cricket Council (ICC), the home minister’s son Jay Shah would have a higher responsibility towards the game’s welfare, it might be a significant development if India does overcome its misgivings and agrees to play cricket in Pakistan, much as Pakistan did in coming to India for the ODI World Cup in 2023.
Cricketing ties used to have a momentum of their own, sometimes in inverse proportion to the national relationship that used to have its massive ups and downs. But then the 2009 shooting incident in Lahore in 2009 changed everything since when teams have toured Pakistan with great trepidation.
If the foreign minister’s SCO trip has managed to change anything at all, it might have to do with the thinking about Team India playing in Pakistan in February-March 2025. It is a major call that would, however, hinge on thorough study of the security angle and whether India’s top leadership would like to take the responsibility of putting at risk the country’s iconic cricket stars.
