India’s foreign relations in South Asia may be in for incredibly challenging times as Bangladesh reels in turmoil with the exit of Sheikh Hasina. An immediate cause of concern may be the safety of Indians in that country who are facing the backlash of the tumult that saw the exit of a long ruling Prime Minister and head of the Awami League party.
Reports of attacks on Hindus and temples in the immediate aftermath of a huge social upheaval led by students may die down once public order is restored under an interim government to be formed at the instance of the Bangladesh Army. But minorities will have to learn to live with fear in a Bangladesh certain to lean towards a more radical Islamist disposition.
The Army there must be sensing a great opportunity amid the political turbulence to dominate the country much as the Pakistan Army does even as one of its first acts was to release the imprisoned Opposition leader and former PM Khaleda Zia, besides restoring the discredited Nobel prize winner Md Yunus to public life.
It is to the credit of India’s political system that all parties stood united in their assessment of the critical situation arising out of the Bangladesh crisis and the repercussions the nation may face with the departure from power of a friend though she was an autocrat who sacrificed democratic ideals to entrench herself as the undisputed leader of her nation.
The fear is that the many positive things that Sheikh Hasina did, like upholding secular principles while reining in the more radical Islamist elements baying for India much like Pakistan and disbanding the camps that militants built on their side of the border for cross-border operations into India’s Northeast, may be reversed soon.
The change in regional geopolitics is something that must worry India’s leaders more as an axis of opposing forces in China and Pakistan may be strengthened with Bangladesh joining in to virtually ringfence India. Securing a 4,000-km border with Bangladesh to guard against militants and malcontents besides a possible flow of refugees suddenly becomes a major task to be addressed, besides safe repatriation of Indians who are in Bangladesh currently.
No scenario can be sanguine from India’s point of view as troublesome neighbours are likely to gang up with a third front opening against India. More of the religious discrimination from Islamist forces is not ruled out with the Hindus in Bangladesh likely to face the heat the most. But trade links built up may not come under immediate pressure as hard-nosed business people know the value of margins that comes with simpler logistics.
Sheikh Hasina’s retreat to a haven is itself a matter of suspense now because even the UK, a safe spot for most Asian politicians who are wealthy enough to live there in exile, put out ambiguous signals while accepting that asylum has been sought.
It is moot whether India, given the risks of alienation of a new regime, would wholeheartedly extend long term hospitality to her as in the past though she sought to come to India only “for the moment”. While Sheikh Hasina’s situation as she is on the run from violent Bangladesh events is unenviable, India finds itself in a tricky situation.
