DC Edit | Monsoon: IMD Misses Mark; amid El Nino Fears On Crops
After accounting for the IMD’s initial margin of error of four days, the monsoon’s onset was effectively delayed by about five days, strengthening prospects of deficient rainfall and raising fresh concerns among farmers preparing for the crucial kharif sowing season
The arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is more than a meteorological event for the country. It is a signal that sets in motion the country’s agricultural cycle, influences rural incomes, shapes inflation trends and ultimately impacts economic growth. This year, however, the India Meteorological Department’s forecast on the monsoon’s progress missed the mark due to the El Nino conditions developing in the Pacific Ocean.
After accounting for the IMD’s initial margin of error of four days, the monsoon’s onset was effectively delayed by about five days, strengthening prospects of deficient rainfall and raising fresh concerns among farmers preparing for the crucial kharif sowing season.
This is the second time that the IMD has failed to forecast the arrival of the monsoon accurately since it began the practice 21 years ago. When the IMD’s forecast on the monsoon onset date was off by two days in 2015, the country received 15 per cent deficient rainfall and suffered a drought. This year too, the IMD has predicted rainfall that is 10 per cent below normal.
Farmers make critical decisions on the purchase of seeds and fertilisers, labour deployment, and irrigation planning based on monsoon forecasts. When forecasts and actual weather patterns diverge significantly, these decisions become riskier and more expensive. However, natural climatic conditions like El Nino, which indicates abnormal warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, sometimes cause forecasts to go awry.
Though the possibility of the climatic phenomenon called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) blunting the impact of El Nino exists towards the end of the official rainy season, a deficient monsoon will adversely affect the agricultural sector.
A subdued monsoon could lead to lower food production, resulting in higher prices and accelerating already fast-rising inflation. Though the government has taken some steps to address the issue by restricting exports of certain food commodities and prioritising domestic consumption, the timing of the deficient rainfall could not be worse in a year marked by wars, crude oil shortages, and economic challenges.
Agriculture contributes around 18 per cent to the Indian economy and is still the largest employer in the country. It is the mainstay of the country’s rural economy. A failed monsoon in a single year could push small farmers, especially those pursuing subsistence farming, into a debt trap. Just as India seeks to reduce its dependence on imported crude oil, it must also reduce the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to rainfall fluctuations.
The government must encourage village-based micro-industries that could create alternative employment for the rural population and help people build emergency funds to survive crop failures. Similarly, investment in irrigation infrastructure, drought-resistant crop varieties, weather-based crop insurance, digital advisory systems and long-term storage capacity must become national priorities.
India is one of the largest economies in the world, accounts for one-sixth of the global population and is one of the few oldest surviving civilisational nations in the world. If it desires to regain its lost global eminence, it must emerge internally stronger by reducing its acute dependence on rainfall and imported energy.
