As the results of the five state assembly elections became clearer, the message across the electoral verdicts was crystal clear. Non-performance by incumbents was seriously frowned on by the electorate was the visible first message. National parties are one again on the ascendency as the second message. The importance and success of forging effective social coalitions was the third indication that emerged from the five states. What are the implications of these trends for the Karnataka polls next year?
Firstly, the Karnataka voters will surely evaluate the performance of their state government while deciding who to choose as the ruling party in the state. Since 1985, the state has a history of not voting back the incumbent party to power (some would argue that 2004 was an exception. Then too, the Congress was voted out but it managed to stitch a collation and come back to power). The BJP would be hoping for the continuation of this trend in Karnataka and thus see itself as the natural choice of the voters in the state. Yet it is important to record that Karnataka has a third party, the JD(S). In the electoral contest due in 2018, the Siddaramaiah government would need to defend its track record as a ruling party even as the BJP and JD(S) make a bid to win the trust of the voter. Thus the track record of the Siddaramaiah government would clearly be on test when the state goes to the polls next year.
It is equally important to point out that the SP government in Uttar Pradesh led by Akhilesh Yadav did make a concerted effort to project its track record in governance and focused on ‘Lucknow shining’. This did not seem to cut much ice with the electorate. It could well be that ‘Lucknow was shining’ but ‘Uttar Pradesh’ was not! It could also imply that, at the ground level, people did not feel the impact of good governance which was being highlighted by the Chief Minister. The important lesson clearly is that the rhetoric of good governance must be experienced by the people in the form of concrete policies and actions. In the absence of such proof, the voter is not likely to express any vote of confidence in the party in power. The elections next year in Karnataka would clearly be an expression of the level of confidence that the voter in the state had in the government’s track record in governance.
Secondly, in the All India battle between the two major national parties – Congress and the BJP, the Karnataka election will be an important site of contestation. While the Congress has now come to power in Punjab, Karnataka is the only other large state where the party is currently in power. Further, unlike in Punjab where the BJP was the junior partner in the Akali Dal led coalition, in Karnataka will clearly be a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP with the JD(S) being a third player in select regions and specific constituencies. In the BJP vision of a ‘Congress-free India’ (Congress mukt-Bharat), a victory for it in Karnataka is critical. Besides, Karnataka has been BJP’s traditional gateway to South India and the first state south of the Vindhyas that it came to power on its own. Thus, a victory in Karnataka is critical for them. Given the style of the BJP campaign in the five elections that just went to polls, one can expect a similar strategy being rolled out by the BJP in Karnataka re
volving around the personality of its central leadership. Further, in the last two years one has noticed that the BJP campaign has been especially strident in states where it is seeking to seize power from an incumbent Congress government. One would find a similar situation in Karnataka and the BJP would leave no stone unturned to win the popular mandate to reassert its footprints in the South. Given the factionalism in the state BJP, the coming months will surely witness a bigger role for the central leadership in strategizing the campaign in the state. The campaign strategy that the party developed for UP and Uttarakhand is likely to be repeated in Karnataka.
For the Congress, on the other hand retaining Karnataka is critical to its larger strategy of challenging the BJP nationally. If its success in Punjab is any indication, it won on account of the party uniting behind Amarinder Singh who was projected as its Chief Ministerial candidate in the run-up to the elections. A similar strategy would be needed in Karnataka.
As the ruling party, it would be imperative that there is a smooth coordination between the party and the government. What one notices today is that the state leadership is more focused on the government rather than on strengthening the party. Factionalism in the party is rampant, with each leader more content in defending and protecting their own ‘limited political territories’ rather than presenting a picture of a well-oiled and united state unit. Any signs of disunity and factionalism, especially when the party does not have a charismatic national leadership would be a sure recipe for disaster.
Critical in Karnataka would be the creation of a grand social coalition which not merely includes the dominant castes – the Vokkaligas and Lingayats but the non-dominant OBCs and the Dalits.
The BJP would attempt to consolidate its already strong position among the Lingayats, expand its support among Vokkaligas and strengthen its presence among the non-dominant OBCs and the Dalits. In 2013, the Congress won stitching together an alliance of the minorities and non-dominant backward castes. Having come to power, little effort has been made by the party to expand its base among the dominant castes. Even among the non-dominant backward castes, the government is perceived to have represented the interests of a select few from among them. A concerted effort to change this image is critical to making a bid to retain power.
Finally, Karnataka will surely see the interplay of a combination of specific local factors with larger national issues. The party that is able to address the expectations of the emerging middle class, the younger voter and the need to balance the aspirations of urban areas with the priorities of rural Karnataka is likely to win popular support.
