The soaring confidence of the Bharatiya Janata Party and National Democratic Alliance after the stupendous May 2014 win had been accompanied by the mousiness evident in the ranks of the Congress in the first brief session of Parliament held right after the famous win under the leadership of Narendra Modi. Now all that seems so long ago.
Indeed, the Budget Session, to commence in just a few days is likely to be approached by MPs of the ruling coalition, especially those of the Sangh Parivar, with a striking absence of confidence in their government’s ability to see things through — easily the worst or most unprepared state of mind for the BJP before a session of Parliament in the past decade.
Even a few months ago it was hard to imagine that such a low point would be struck so soon after a spectacular victory less than two years ago. Lord Ganesh, the remover of obstacles, is apparently turning up his nose against Hindutva adherence, which many from within have now begun to call a “dictatorship” on account of the extreme centralisation of authority that is producing all too few positive results.
Until only a few months ago, it was relatively easy for the leading lights of the ruling side to run down the political Opposition in Parliament, in particular the Congress Party, and middle India — the median or average Indian — applauded. In the top Congress leadership, Rahul Gandhi still seemed a shade unconnected. But the smacking electoral defeat for the BJP in Bihar last November has clearly had a cathartic impact on BJP’s opponents. It did both — revive the Opposition, and spread despair in saffron quarters.
Something else of import happened as a consequence, and this will have an unsettling effect on the political hegemony of the rulers. Of the ruling triumvirate of Mr Modi, BJP president Amit Shah, and Union finance minister Arun Jaitley, people are now openly taking swipes at Mr Jaitley — an altogether different scenario from the past when his name would frequently be uttered with admiration, especially among the middle classes and strong free market proponents.
Industry, including big industry — the biggest backers of Mr Modi’s election campaign and afterward his aspirations — now no longer hesitate in expressing their open disappointment with the performance of the finance ministry and the policies it presides over. No less noteworthy, Mr Jaitley is under fire from a third term BJP MP, Kirti Azad, and his cohorts in matters relating to the cash-rich Delhi & District Cricket Association over which
Mr Jaitley presided over a considerable period of time as a lord of the manor, to say nothing of Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, who can be a tricky customer.
The bridegroom in the Budget Session is the country’s finance minister, and the poor man is having to rig up his own leaky umbrella above his head, unaided. Cranking up the chorus boys has been of no avail. The economy has hardly improved and growing at about the same rate as it did under Manmohan Singh when the world financial situation was far more adverse, with petroleum prices shooting to a dizzy $150 a barrel nearly, as against only $30 now.
This means a positively favourable balance of payments situation now, a hugely moderating influence on inflation and a check on fiscal imbalances. However, in spite of these positives, there isn’t much to show. Savings and investment rates in the economy are badly down, investments show few signs of improvement, the poorer sections reel under high prices of essentials and jobs remain scarce. Besides, of course, there is the overhang of a serious crisis in Indian agriculture.
Mr Gandhi, who simultaneously manages to appear timorous and adventurous, had something insightful to say the other day. He noted that the BJP ran two simultaneous campaigns at election time: while one spoke of “development”, the other unabashedly brandished the communal agenda. Indeed, this appears to be Mr Shah’s forte, he might have added.
But the way things look, the second pillar of the ruling “trimurti” may not find the going so easy this time around. This particular pillar of the Modi establishment was badly shaken up after the licking in Bihar, with the ranks of internal critics rising. And yet, only a few weeks ago, he was formally elected BJP president with Mr Modi’s backing so that he may continue, it was hoped, to show his wizardry at “double-dealing” — spinning the charkha of development and communalism at the same time with panache with Assembly elections looming in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
But the economic situation being what it is, transparently communal tricks may just become that much harder to sell. Tales of blood, gore and nationalist valour can be sold only up to a point, when everyday struggles of the populace become daunting. Thus, of the tripod of power at the Centre, it is only the Prime Minister who can still get by with the least catcalls. It is perhaps fair to say that his dazzle has dimmed, but less than that of his government.
This, however, can hardly help him put together a smooth Budget Session when failure is popping up on all fronts, including on Kashmir and anti-terrorism, on the eve of five Assembly elections. This is a government of three Ds or four Ws — whatever; and exhortations such as “Start-up India, Stand-up India”. These now create mirth, not expectation. But the country’s students, youth, dalits, womenfolk, and the “downstairs of society”, are finding it difficult to be enthused by empty Hindu nationalist slogan-mongering.
There is, however, one factor that the ruling party will be grateful for. Its key opponents — parties like the Congress, Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal — which wrought the Bihar magic and created the “Bihar factor” that conspicuously dented the BJP government’s and Mr Modi’s image, are nowhere near producing a coalescing vision that projects the mantra of empowerment for the less fortunate of our citizens.
Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar needs to leverage his personal image far more outside the state, while Lalu Prasad Yadav can do with looking less preoccupied with his family’s political fortunes. Mr Gandhi, for once, needs to project more punchy gravitas through the skilful use of the parliamentary forum to produce weighty ideas and rise above mere guerrilla warfare.
