While Donald Trump on his first official visit to Saudi Arabia was signing unprecedented billions of dollars’ worth of military contracts, Iranians were celebrating the decisive re-election victory of their reformist President Hassan Rouhani against hardliner Ebrahim Raisi.
The contrast neatly sums up the geopolitical tangle in the Middle East, with the Saudis leading the Sunni world in a confrontation with Shia Iran’s penchant for expanding its influence across an arch of Shia-majority countries, Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon. Indeed, by their ostentatious welcome of the new US President, they were celebrating the end of the Barack Obama era, never comfortable with the kingdom, and the opening shot of a man they deem friendly and unconcerned with such issues as human rights. The US first lady, however, did not cover her head, as is the local custom for women.
President Trump himself has lambasted the nuclear deal Iran signed with world powers, including the US, but has withheld repudiating it because of pressure from allies and the complexities of the Middle East. He has also continued to wave sanctions based on the old agreement although imposing some new economic sanctions of his own. But Mr Trump’s past stances are no guide to his future policy, as is clear from abusing President Xi Jinping to worshipping him as a sage, respected leader.
The consequences of Mr Trump’s foray into the Middle East coinciding with the result of the Iranian presidential election are writ large. First, the margin of Mr Rouhani’s victory by more than 57 per cent of the vote, higher than his first win, is a sign of Iranian middle classes’ anxieties and hopes. Indeed, they helped Mr Rouhani’s victory margin by massive voting in the cities. And for once Iran is on higher moral ground by allowing its people a free vote, despite all the restrictions they live under. In his statement, Mohammad Javad Zarif, the energetic foreign minister, had a dig at his neighbourhood by saying that “our people who, unlike others, do vote”.
Everyone knows that in Iran supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the boss, but the elected President does have leeway in influencing domestic and foreign policies. The nuclear agreement was a big plus for Mr Rouhani although Iranians are disappointed that it has not led to greater foreign investment, with continuing US sanctions acting as a wet blanket.
President Rouhani’s win ensures that Iran will plough the furrow of greater cooperation with the world, a theme embraced by the leader in his first public reaction to his victory. “Iranians have chosen the path of interaction with the world on mutual interest and national interests”. There will doubtless be opposition from the Revolutionary Guards and the clergy, but these are continuing problems Iran has to live with.
However, President Trump has highlighted the geopolitical problems with Iran’s own interests coming into conflict with Saudi and other Sunni kingdoms. And other outside powers have their finger in the pie. By resuscitating Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Moscow has carved out a major role for itself in Syria, apart from the strategic bases it enjoys. In league with Iran and Turkey, it has now carved out safety zones.
While Iran has its own concept of being the overlord of Shia powers in the region, Turkey’s role is complex and seems guided by its obsession with its rebellious Kurdish population and its fear of their joining with the Syrian Kurds (YPG) to form an independent Kurdish state. But the YPG are favoured by Americans because they are the best fighting force against the so-called Islamic State and are now armed by Washington, courting Turkish displeasure.
The irony is that instead of reducing the American footprint in the Muslim and Arab worlds as he promised to do by espousing an “America First” policy, his administration is increasing his country’s commitments, first by increasing American commandos in Iraq, projecting an increase in the American contingent in Afghanistan and now in strengthening the Sunni alliance in the Middle East.
President Trump’s handicaps are many. He has compounded his own limited knowledge of international affairs by upgrading the military budget and downgrading the state department and appointing neophytes in senior supervisory positions, leaving many senior positions vacant. The secretary of state, Rex W. Tillerson, for instance, former head of an oil company, has no experience of international diplomacy, except in his limited field.
While the Middle East might be virgin territory for President Trump, it is a crucible of decades, if not centuries, of colonial power plays, with countries’ borders divided up by outside powers for administrative convenience and kings installed and dethroned at will. American influence spread rapidly after the end of World War II, with quintessential colonial power Britain exhausted.
President Trump is now reduced to seeking Russian help to end the fighting in Syria as he is pleading with China to help him resolve the North Korean nuclear tangle. It would be funny, if it were not so tragic, to see a boastful man of a narcissistic nature pleading for favours from two hostile powers. Will his visit to Saudi Arabia, the first country he has chosen after assuming office, solidify the American compact with the Sunni world, despite his known allergy to Islam? Perhaps it will, perhaps not. Given the eagerness with which he greeted Egyptian President al-Sistani his predecessor had kept at arm’s length, self-interest trumps everything else in his book.
The US President will be on more familiar ground on his visit to Israel, with his son-in-law Jared Kushner a practising rabbi and a new ambassador with close links with illegal settlements. Thus far, he has expressed no opinion on the virtues of a two-state or one-state future Israel.
What is clear thus far is the likelihood that his foray into the Middle East will serve to deepen, rather than ameliorate, the Sunni-Shia divide. One hopes his future advisers will guide him better, once senior positions in a depleted state department are filled, the slimmed budget permitting.
