For all those who have watched this slippery game of snakes and ladders play out since H.D. Kumaraswamy became the unwitting beneficiary of the Congress’ misplaced largesse some 14 months ago, the BJP, which must be commended for its long game, for never taking its eye off the ball, has finally landed the big one - the ultimate prize of a government in the south. And this time, Bookanakere Siddalingappa Yediyurappa isn’t going to go away that easily. He has both feet planted, well inside the door.
A man on a mission, he must cement his legacy and ensure that he erases not just the dubious record of his three previous stints of not seeing a full five year term through to completion, but equally, that he does live up to expectations of the people of this state, numbed into disbelief by the shenanigans this past year, in what could be his last hurrah.
But can he, is the big question… That he is eleven years older than when he first became chief minister on the back of a solid vote for the BJP in 2008, is no doubt a cause for worry for the party, as is the fact that he’s not known for his diplomacy or his patience. But 76 years and counting, he still has fire in his belly. And for Amit Shah who has pulled all the strings, albeit from afar, BSY may not be his preferred leader of choice. (Who is, is the question?)
But as a Lingayat tour de force, who scored 25 out of 28 seats in the Lok Sabha election, and won a 104 seats to the assembly in 2018 – true, just short of a majority – the BJP must know that it ignores Yediyurappa at its peril.
For one, he must be one of only a handful of BJP leaders who has a statewide footprint. Born in Mandya district in the south, with which he still has strong links while making a mark as a party worker in Shivamogga as well as the north where the Lingayat support to him has been unwavering, the BJP knows well that it paid the price for alienating him in the 2013 poll when he drew the Lingayat vote bank to him, leaving the BJP with a paltry 40 seats.
And while this time, it was the disarray in opposition ranks, and the conflict of interest between the two ideologically opposed formations, the Congress and the JD(S), that no doubt worked in his favour, the talk that he’s only there until the BJP grooms a potential successor for the long term as he steps across the party’s 75- year age limit, needs careful handling. Or, it could open the doors to a Congress resurgence, six months from now when bypolls to some 17 seats are on the cards.
That said, whether the Congress can get past being blamed for inflicting a government on a hapless Karnataka that was from day one, completely and utterly dysfunctional, a coalition in nothing but name, with one power centre running a ‘transactional’ government and the other doing everything it could to undermine and bring it down, is another matter. Curiously, it was the outgoing Congress president Rahul Gandhi who nailed it with this tweet. “From its first day, the Cong-JDS alliance in Karnataka was a target for vested interests, both within & outside, who saw the alliance as a threat & an obstacle in their path to power. Their greed won today. Democracy, honesty & the people of Karnataka lost..”
“Within and outside..”?? One gets the barb at the BJP’s ‘greed.” But who was the enemy within? Could it be the Congress’ chief minister in waiting, Siddaramaiah, who, presented with an ‘HDK for CM’ plan as a fait accompli, was always champing at the bit, and as the clamour for cabinet seats got shriller, insisted - strangely - that only the independents would get in? Some 13 Congress legislators resigned because they didn’t get what they wanted!
For HDK and his ambitious family, the government was a short-term ticket to cement its own base in the Vokkaliga heartland. For Siddaramaiah, it was a slap in his face. Given his public falling out with the Gowdas, following which he had joined the Congress, expecting him to work with the Gowdas was nothing more than folly. The Congress’ folly.
Stopping the BJP with this kind of artificial band-aid could not have been anything but a stopgap. The Congress – in power in name only, and kept out of all decision-making – was already a divided house, with the deputy chief minister Dr G. Parameshwar and Mr Siddaramaiah, and others up and down the pecking order, at loggerheads. One group for the status quo, the other, pushing for change.
Savvy leaders like D.K, Shivakumar rode roughshod over troublemakers like Ramesh Jarkiholi, the man who actually set the exodus from the Congress in motion, and who should have been kept from becoming fodder for the BJP, hunting for a way in. DKShi’s attempt to bring the rebel flock home, flying to Mumbai, standing outside the hotel, drenched in the rain, grabbed eyeballs as did his bid to bring MTB Nagaraj, Somashekara and Bhairati Basavaraj back, but to what end?
Somebody should ask the question. Why did the Congress do nothing when the BJP first began fishing in the Cong-JDS troubled waters, and everyone knew it was happening? Why were they unable to prevent batch after batch of rebels hot-footing it to HAL airport under the eagle eye of Mr Yediyurappa’s secretary, who chose seven star incarceration at Amby Valley over staying with the Congress, and JD(S)? Again, in a JD(S)-Congress run state, they didn’t know what was happening!
The speculation? Mr Siddaramaiah, smug in the belief the Congress would come up trumps in fresh elections, had brought the government down by engineering the defection of his coterie, who would come back to the fold when the time was right. Except, that strategy may have just blown up in his face. The BJP does have its doubts over the Siddaramaiah Trio, the SBM.
Either way, it all comes down to the trust vote on Monday. If there’s a rebel no-show again, the BJP could just sail through. Especially as some say – HDK has vehemently denied it – that some JD-S’ leaders are exploring the option of backing the BJP. From the outside. And it could begin with a massive no show from the JD(S) for Monday’s trust vote.
In a state, that has always been divided along caste lines, it’s curious that this wasn’t even a Vokkaliga versus Lingayat battle. Or a Kuruba versus Lingayat tussle. It was simply a battle for power. Caste? Does it even matter?
