There is very little argument now about the syndrome of global warming and its resultant impact on climate change. Extreme climate events are becoming the norm and scientists are devising ways and means to mitigate the problem. Simultaneously, scientists and planners are also trying to find ways and means to adapt to this new world - a world ravaged by extreme rainfall and extreme heat.
One aspect of this extreme heat syndrome is the economic losses countries will incur. While most of the focus has been, and rightfully so, on human life losses, another aspect of this is to look at economic losses to businesses because of extreme heat. Researchers predict that increasing temperatures caused by climate change may cost global economies more than $2 trillion by 2030, restricting working hours in some of the poorest parts of the world.
According to the research published in a paper titled, The Direct Impact of Climate Change on Regional Labor Productivity, the research team led by Tord Kjellstrom, says that, ''Heat strain can occur in arid climates, indoor office environments, and factories''. So in case you though that the impact of heat is only on those who work outdoors, think again. As many as 43 countries, especially those in Asia, including China, Indonesia, and Malaysia, will experience declines in their economies because of heat stress, says the study. As a result, China's gross domestic product would be reduced 1 percent and Indonesia's by 6 percent by 2030.
"With heat stress, you cannot keep up the same intensity of work, and we'll see reduced speed of work and more rest in labour-intensive industries," Kjellstrom said. "Rich countries have the financial resources to adapt to climate change."
In 2030, in both India and China, the GDP losses could total $450 billion, Kjellstrom said. The impact could be reduced by making major shift in working hours and changing how new factories are built to require less power to cool.
Sometimes I feel that we in the developing world, gloss over the syndrome of heat and heat related deaths, because it is becoming so common, and also because most of us do not really understand and feel the heat - literally! The hottest temperature most people can fathom is 40o to 50o degrees C, which we read about in deserts and during the peak summer in places like Rajasthan and Delhi.
Now picture this - what happens when the temperature raises to 74o C! This is what happened in Bandar Mahshahr in Iran on 31st July 2015. The human body has an internal temperature of around 37oC, and it does not like it when that very specific figure shifts in either direction. Changes of as little as a single degree can cause your body's delicate biochemistry to glitch in unpleasant ways. It's a real hazard for workers who need to keep their concentration in such conditions. The Canadian Centre for Occupational Health and Safety (CCOHS) says aside from increased irritability, you start losing the ability to do skilled or mental tasks.
Extreme heat in Southeast Asia already curbs annual working hours by 15 to 20 percent, and that figure could double by 2050 as climate change progresses, according to the paper published in Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health. As unfair as the world is, the truth is that low and middle income countries are more likely to lose productivity from heat, because their ability to adapt to extreme heat is much less than the developed countries. It does not matter that these low income countries are some of the lowest contributors to global warming. "We need to think more carefully about patterns of urban development," said Anthony Capon, a professor at the UN university. "As it is, high income countries have more capacity to insulate their people from health impacts of climate change. People in the poorer countries are the most effected."
How do we adapt to this inevitable situation, protect our workers and at the same time keep productivity high? With great GDP ambitions, countries like India need to factor in economic losses from extreme heat caused by climate change, and devise strategies to adapt to this cold truth.
