Indian experts on Pakistan lament that nothing seem to work against it. India’s size, population, economic might and military superiority in conventional sense and Pakistan’s loss in four wars doesn’t deter, dishearten, discourage or diminish its urge to square up with India and inflict thousand cuts notwithstanding the devastating effect of this mindless pursuit on Pakistan itself. Over the years, India has tried to build a functionally normal and productive relationship with the Pakistani government; democratically elected or headed by a general, but barring occasional faint glimmer of optimism, there has been no paradigm shift in Pakistan’s policy towards India.
The carrot and stick approach, underlining economic benefits of normal relations with India, booming bilateral trade and business, joint strategy regarding items such as cotton, jute and rice, cooperation in WTO and Saarc, drastic reduction in defence expenditure and highlighting the debilitating effect of an arms’ race and an unwinnable war, and inviting to wage a war against poverty, unemployment, crime, illiteracy, lack of education and healthcare as exhorted by Narendra Modi in his statesman-like speech in Kozhikode haven’t worked.
The so-called new normal: robust and effective response to cross-border terrorism including targeted anti-terrorist strikes against terrorist launchpads across the LoC and no-holds-barred international campaign for naming and shaming Pakistan as the main producer, trainer and exporter of terrorism, splashing its own human right violations particularly in Balochistan and canvassing to get Pakistan declared a terrorist state haven’t induced any long-term change in Pakistan’s attitude either. Recent “surgical strikes” have been hailed nationwide as bold initiatives reflecting strong political will of the Modi government, different from earlier government Indian soldiers have been deservedly applauded for their heroic sacrifices. But will the recent “surgical strike” stop cross-border terrorism? I don’t think so.
Pakistan’s defence and foreign policy towards India will continue to be controlled by the Army and the ISI; no civilian government in Pakistan is likely to challenge them in near future. Terrorist organizations — JEM, LET, Haqqani, TTP with deeply entrenched relations with the military and the ISI won’t be eliminated. And Pakistan can’t be totally isolated nor will it be declared a terrorist state in spite of India’s spirited campaign. Above all, Pakistan will not stop raising the Kashmir issue at every international fora. Given these hard ground realities, what should India do? Only a long-term, multipronged and sustained policy utilising all possible bilateral, regional and international leverages might work.
Let PM Modi ask his ministers, MPs and coalition partners to get rid of the irrepressible obsession with Pakistan. They must concentrate on dozens of serious issues confronting India rather than fritter away their energies in indulging in futile verbal boxing matches to score brownie points or grab some headlines and claim credit for the job well done. Let the PMO and the MEA only comment on issues pertaining to India-Pakistan relations when comments can’t be avoided. Our foreign policy shouldn’t look excessively Pakistan centric.
Let the Indian media ignore Pakistan for a year. So much happens every day domestically and internationally that cries out for attention. Why not focus on that? Abstinence from Pakistan bashing won’t harm India. On the contrary, this deliberate neglect might convey some meaningful signal.
We must continue robust and effective response including targeted strikes against terrorist camps/hideouts/launchpads across the LoC relentlessly but without shouting from the rooftop. Let our actions speak for themselves. Their message will be heard in the concerned constituencies in Pakistan.
Undertake both covert and overt action against Pakistan using the most advanced technologies and reliable human intelligence without chest thumping and retaining all avenues of deniability.
Instead of trying to get Pakistan declared a terrorist state, we must announce emphatically and unequivocally at every bilateral and international summit that India can’t accept a second partition; Pakistan will never be allowed to wrest Kashmir from India irrespective of which government is in power at the Centre.
We must discreetly tell China, Pakistan’s all weather friends, that their blind support to Pakistan against India will have adverse impact on bilateral relations especially on trade, business and investment. In other words, showing utter disregards and insensitivity to India’s national interests carries costs.
Countries like the US, China, Russia, Saudi/Arabia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey should be vigorously wooed with our economic carrot and urged to make their friend Pakistan see reason and make friends with India and reap huge benefits from India’s economic surge rather than descend into anarchy and become a failed state.
Notwithstanding strong trashing from certain quarters, quiet diplomacy still matters. Let the Track2/track3 back channel parleys proceed with greater involvement of retired top brass of India’s defence forces who could possibly have more productive reading of the Pakistani Army.
Diplomatic efforts at getting Pakistan excluded from the regional and International Fora should continue without beating the drums loudly. Even though the chances of success are slim thanks to China’s opposition, demanding UN economic sanctions against Pakistan for not taking action against the terrorist groups proscribed by the UN is legitimate and we shouldn’t be coy about it.
We must try to win hearts and minds of the youth in Kashmir valley; if they were with us, Pakistan can’t fish in trouble waters.
The Supreme Court should take suo motu cognisance and prohibit politicisation of achievements of the Armed Forces by all political parties. Similarly, whipping up frenzy against helpless film producers who might have taken Pakistani actors when relations were looking up and extorting money must be made punishable offence. This is nothing short of blatant extortion.
