Although Tharoor has clarified that he was only appreciating the good work, Congress leaders believe that an intellectual of his stature never speaks without reason.
Thiruvananthapuram: The Congressmen in Kerala should thank Shashi Tharoor because his recent statements have accomplished what the party's leadership could not achieve.
All the senior Congress leaders who were fighting among themselves until yesterday have now united against Tharoor in one voice. The Congress high command and the Kerala leadership are well aware of the damage that his statements can cause to the party’s prospects in assembly elections slated early next year.
The Congress' worry stems from the drastic changes witnessed in the state’s electoral landscape since the 2021 assembly elections. Earlier, Kerala voted for a change every five years, irrespective of whether the opposition was united or not, capable or not.
Many would argue that Congress-led UDF won 18 out of 20 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and secured victories in most by-elections held recently, hence it is on a strong footing. But those watching Kerala politics closely know that voters in Kerala largely vote differently in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Therefore, defeating the CPM in Kerala is as difficult for the Congress as going past the BJP in North India.
The BJP's vote percentage is also increasing steadily in Kerala affecting both the Congress and the LDF. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured 19.24 percent of votes and succeeded in breaching the CPM strongholds in many districts. The CPM backed by its well-oiled organisational machinery and united leadership has now undertaken specific tasks to regain its lost ground from the BJP.
On the other hand, it is a daunting task for Congress to regain its lost vote bank. In the last election, the BJP snatched Congress sitting seat Thrissur and opened its account in Lok Sabha from Kerala. There are many assembly segments as well where the BJP has pushed the Congress to the third place.
In Capital City Thiruvananthapuram from where Tharoor won four times in a row, the Congress used to be the main opposition party in Corporation for several decades. Today the BJP has relegated the Congress to a poor third position.
On a larger canvas, the anti-incumbency votes against the ruling Left Front which used to take one direction, is now divided between the Congress and the BJP. In other words, the bipolar politics of Kerala has witnessed a drastic change.
To make things difficult for the Congress, the BJP national leadership has resolved to keep the grand old party out of power in Kerala especially after the Gandhis set up their new base in Wayanad.
The assembly elections are scheduled to take place in 2026 in four major states: West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam. Among these states, Kerala is the only one where Congress has a chance of coming to power.
However, registering a victory in Kerala is not an easy task as with the formidable ruling Left Front, under the leadership of veteran leader Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, making a strong bid for power for the third consecutive term.
In this context, Shashi Tharoor's open praise for the LDF government’s achievements in startup and ease of doing business sector has become a headache for the Congress. Many are even calling Tharoor a “sleeper cell” of the BJP, accusing him of striking at the party at a crucial time and undermining its campaign to return to power.
Although Tharoor has clarified that he was only appreciating the good work, Congress leaders believe that an intellectual of his stature never speaks without reason. His statements and a recent interview have certainly proven that something is brewing in Tharoor's mind. The political market rife with speculations; will he leave Congress? Will he join BJP? Will he form a new party and create a joint platform with the Left Front?
Amid this controversy, the Congress leadership has reportedly told Tharoor to refrain from openly supporting the policies of the ruling parties at the Centre and state. It is unacceptable for the organisation that a top leader of the party should praise the opponents at a time when the workers are waging a war on the battlefield.
Many Congressmen are saying that it is good that Tharoor spoke his mind at this juncture. If he had spoken in this manner around the election, then there would not have been time for damage control.
Tharoor indeed enjoys support and goodwill among a wide section of people including educated youth, professionals, the upper middle class, the aspirational class, the IT sector and even marginalised sections. But this will not be enough if he has to emerge as the chief ministerial candidate within the Congress.
Creating a new party by staging a rebellion is not an option either. A veteran leader like Karunakaran had also formed a new party by breaking away from Congress in 2005, but his party could only win one seat in the 140-seat assembly, and in the end, Karunakaran returned to Congress with his family.
Tharoor has been winning the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat continuously for the last four times. There is certainly a fatigue factor. As a CWC member also, he has not been assigned specific responsibilities.
Many believe that the diplomat-turned-politician has reached a stage in his political life where he will have to quickly chart out a roadmap for his future. On the other hand, the Congress too will have to take a call on Tharoor without any delay. Well, time is running out for both.
