Lok Sabha Verdict Could Potentially Set a New Political Trajectory in Kerala

With local bodies elections and Assembly polls scheduled in the next two years, Kerala is all set to witness an intense battle between major political formations for electoral space.

BJP’s victory in Thrissur and the huge increase in the party’s vote share in several constituencies suggest that the state could be moving towards a change in the bipolar political system. Many political observers believe that the BJP could have increased its vote share by cutting into the traditional Left base.

The UDF managed to largely hold on to its electoral base. Apart from the Congress which won 14 seats, its allies Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) secured two, the RSP and KEC one each. One of the major factors responsible for UDF’s stupendous victory was undoubtedly Rahul Gandhi’s decision to contest again from Wayanad. His presence galvanised the UDF cadres for the second time in a row.

Besides, the massive response received by his Bharat Jodo yatra had an impact. The UDF won a majority of seats with a margin ranging from 50,000 to over 3 lakh votes. The Congress's decision to retain most of its MPs also paid off. Rajamohan Unnithan (Kasargod), K. Sudhakaran (Kannur), M.K. Raghavan (Kozhikode), V.K. Sreekandan (Palakkad), Benny Behnan (Chalakudy), Hibi Eden (Ernakulam), Dean Kuriakose (Idukki), Kodikunnil Suresh (Mavelikkara), Anto Antony (Pathananmthitta), Adoor Prakash (Attingal) and Shashi Tharoor (Thiruvananthapuram) retained their seats.

MPs Remya Haridas (Alathur) and K. Muraleedharan who was shifted from Vadakara to Thrissur, could not make it.

“We will examine the reasons for the defeat in Thrissur. We thank the people of Kerala for giving us a resounding mandate in the majority of the constituencies,” said opposition leader V.D. Satheeshan.

The Congress’s significant victory can also be credited to KPCC president K. Sudhakaran and opposition leader Satheeshan, who have stepped out of the shadows of party stalwarts A.K. Antony and late Oommen Chandy. This election was the first test for the duo.

The significant loss in the polls for a second time is likely to make Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's position untenable, though he had stated that the Lok Sabha polls were not a referendum on his government’s performance.

The shortcomings of the LDF government on many fronts, serious corruption allegations associated with the Chief Minister and his family members, and financial irregularities linked with cooperative banks, have all contributed to the Left's poor performance.

Vijayan held at least half-a-dozen mega public meetings against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). It was aimed at opposing the BJP-led Centre's move to villainise the Muslim community and expose the Congress for dilly-dallying on the issue.

The results from Malabar indicate that his attempt failed to resonate among the majority of the Muslim community, if the electoral support received by the Muslim League-UDF camp is any indication.

Many believe that the overdrive on CAA might have alienated a section of Hindus who are traditional Left supporters.

“The LDF honours the mandate given by the people. We will analyse the reasons behind the huge defeat. We also examine whether the government’s performance was also a factor,” said CPM state secretary M.V. Govindan.